时间：December 15, Tuesday,10am-11am

地点：Center for Mathematical Sciences, Room813 (创新研究院恩明楼813室)

报告人：Juergen Kurths

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research & Humboldt University, Berlin & King´s College, University of Aberdeen, UK, Juergen.Kurths@pik-potsdam.de

标题：Climate Networks and Extreme Events

摘要：We analyse climate dynamics from a complex network approach. This leads to an inverse problem: Is there a backbone-like structure underlying the climate system? For this we propose a method to reconstruct and analyze a complex network from data generated by a spatio-temporal dynamical system. This approach enables us to uncover relations to global circulation patterns in oceans and atmosphere. We also evaluate different regional climate models from this aspect.

This concept is also applied to Monsoon data; in particular, we develop a general framework to predict extreme events by combining a non-linear synchronization technique with complex networks. Applying this method, we uncover a new mechanism of extreme floods in the eastern central Andes which could be used for operational forecasts.

引用：

Donges, J., Y. Zou, N. Marwan, and J. Kurths, Europhys. Lett. 87, 48007 (2009).

Donges, J., R. Donner, M. Trauth, N. Marwan, H.J. Schellnhuber, and J. Kurths, PNAS 108, 20422-20427 (2011). Runge, J. , J. Heitzig, V. Petoukhov, J. Kurths, Phys. Rev. Lett. 108, 258701 (2012)

Boers, N., B. Bookhagen, N. Marwan, J. Kurths, and J. Marengo, Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 4386 (2013)

N. Boers, B. Bookhagen, H.M.J. Barbosa, N. Marwan, J. Kurths, and J.A. Marengo, Nature Communications 5, 5199 (2014)

Runge, J. et al., Nature Communications 6, 8502 (2015).

Juergen Kurths talk wuhan1 15122015.ppt