报告人：庾建设（广州大学）

时间：2019.10.13 8:30AM

地点：华中科技大学恩明楼数学中心813

报告题目：Modelling mosquito population suppression via delay differential equation

摘要：Mosquito-borne diseases are threatening half of the world's population. A novel strategy of disease control is to suppress the mosquito population by releasing male mosquitoes infected by a special strain of Wolbachia. This bacterium induces cytoplasmic incompatibility that eggs of wild females mated with released males fail to hatch. In this work, we introduce a model of delay differential equations to initiate a study on the mosquito suppression dynamics with the compensation policy that the loss of released males is compensated by new releasing, and the constant policy that a constant amount c of infected males are released each time, T days apart. We find the exact value of the threshold releasing intensity r* for the compensation policy, and provide a reasonably sharp estimate of the threshold constant c* for the constant policy. In the first case, we also show that the model displays bi-stability with two stable steady-states and one unstable steady-state when the abundance of released males R(t) 2 (0; r*). Our simulation reveals that some solutions may develop sustained oscillations with increasing magnitudes, and suggest the existence of one or more stable periodic solutions. The simulation provides a theoretical support to the observation in the Guangzhou mosquito control program that a 5:1 releasing ratio between the releasing amount and the initial wild male abundance could be an optimal option. It also indicates that the suppression efficacy is insensitive to the waiting days between two consecutive releases. Several open mathematical questions are proposed in hope of stimulating more extensive explorations of the dynamic complexities of the model.

个人简介:

理学博士，教授。2003年12月后，任广州大学党委副书记、校长。现任广州市政协副主席、党组成员。省第十二届人大代表；第十届市委候补委员，市第九、十、十一次党代会代表；市第十三届人大代表；第十三届市政协委员。先后主持国家自然科学基金重点项目2项，国家自然科学基金面上项目3项，科技部重大基础研究前期研究专项1项，2006年获国家杰出青年基金。